What the autonomous hide
. PUBLIC debt, deficit, unemployment … Regional imbalances have grown like wildfire in the heat of a crisis that has become the best breeding ground furiously costs of many autonomous regions and municipalities, the broiler a few debts that have put in a position nms that the financial position sensitive land, all a threat to financial stability in the overall audience of state. But … actually reflect the official, cheap wow powerleveling, figures provided by regional governments A qu face matches that change of government after the 22-M What can be hidden under the alfrombra The incoming government will be willing to take what is not, what is hidden
The IMF has already warned about the problem Autonomic, and other analysts
The financial problems of the autonomous Spanish, until recently, everquest 2 platinum, largely unknown to international markets, have come to the forefront of their concerns. The large volume of accumulated debt that had been joined by concerns that not enough transparency in budget execution and may end up surfacing a much greater financial imbalance of admission, which seriously complicate our unwavering commitment to Europe to balance the accounts p lic.
A few weeks ago, was the, darkfall gold, International Monetary Fund to warn of the Autonomic problem, but so have made analysts and economists, concerned that after the elections there is a cascade of adjustments to clarify that the health of Autonomic finances is worse than suggested by official to statistics. Uncertainty about the region's debt, along with the limited growth Economic, is what has led to the IMD business school in Spain to relegate the position 35 in global competitiveness rnking.
The adjustments that come
Questions about whether Spain is able to meet its deficit targets this year (6% of GDP) grow between experts and economists inside and outside our borders, so that the ghost of the need for further adjustments and sacrifices to the citizens AFTER est today seems more closely and not because of the failure to meet targets by the state and territorial governments, ada transformed today into a serious threat to stability . A threat that can go ams, which depend on what is hidden under the carpet after the elections, according to economists polled agreed by Company.
Freemarket says there are 5,200 entities with a debt Autonomic unincorporated
And what happened in Catalonia with the change of government fears that history may repeat itself in many other autonomous communities AFTER today. The new government of Catalonia convergent detect a deficit that practically doubled the bean declared that the tripartite. If this happens in other autonomous, the need to implement new and feared adjustment measures which may be more imminent given that Spain also reapplied the first line of fire, to be Focus of the markets, what goes serious risks and resurrect the dreaded ghost of the debt crisis.
According secured in a study by Corporate Intelligence Freemarket the rapidly growing debt public that until now has been hidden may come to light after the elections and government changes. The calculations of the consulting firm headed by economist Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quirs, is that there are about 5,200 Autonomic and local authorities with a debt not incorporated into the official accounts of about 26,400 million euros. This debt is an unofficial estimate for the low, as only includes, according to the report, that of public undertakings and have not computed any of the other off-balance sheet commitments (leases , guarantees, loans Germans …) because there is no way of knowing their numbers and, in view of what happened in Catalonia, has serious potential to reach million dollar amounts.
Figures of heart …
A report in the territorial structure untenable: The autonomous municipalities and AFTER the 22M, Freemarket estimated that if informal debt included in the budget of the territorial administrasciones, the total debt of the same growth to 17.5%. If we take only the communities, will be 15%, and if is bounded nicamente local public finance, will be 25.6%. It is for these figures so that the indebtedness of the subsidiaries of territorial governments have become a problem, especially in recent years. And represents 2.5% of GDP and the financial situation of these companies is suspension of payments on a percentage of 90%, so the possibility of increasing the deficit in each of the autonomy as for this reason have gained strength in recent months.
Seven of the fourteen autonomous regions holding elections today breached the deficit target set by economy (2.4%) for the past year. Baleares, Murcia, Aragon, Navarra, La Rioja, Valencia and Castilla-La Mancha. Which means that they have not passed the examination of department heads and Elena Salgado They will have to be submitted to a recovery, probably in June, to bring forward its plans for fiscal consolidation y. .. regain authorization to issue new debt, a table of lifeline for many. And the numbers seem to prove it: During the past 25 years, the peripherals government debt has increased twenty-fold and its participation in GDP has grown from 2.7% in 1984 14.2% in 2010
We must not lose sight, in addition, that the territorial government debt is more expensive and has grown more than the state. On average, during the upswing of the cycle, the risk premium of debt securities issued by local administrations was between 40 and 80 basis points higher than that paid by the central government, which leads to ensure that markets have relied less on budgetary discipline capability of autonomous communities.
The regions have had to resort, and repeatedly, the debt market to find FUNDING gives an idea of aathe seriousness of the problem. The war unleashed liabilities between financial institutions also reach regional bonds, which should offer no less attractive conditions to attract the necessary resources. This translates into increased financial costs, so this model FINANCE improves liquidity, but carries more costs due.
Catalonia has been the region that has used more debt, with payments of between 4% and 5%. In October emitted about 3,000 million euros, and about 3,100 between April and May.
… Unpaid bills …
The debt has had on the Spaniards an exponential growth regions, as also have been defaults. Traditionally for all companies, contracting with the Public Administration at any level (state, Autonomic and local) was a safe bet. The Administration always paid … until 2009. The debt for unpaid bills peripherals administrations may be between 30,000 and 40,000 million, which added to the 26,400 million hidden debt, resulting in a devastating result.
AFTER the arrival of the Catalan government after winning elections, the new administration of CiU cake was found the previous invoices unpaid executive Dej, which amount represents 6.5% of Catalonia's official debt, according Freemarket, which does not hesitate to ensure that this is no exception and it seems to be the general garment after today's election.
The Andalusian town debt exceeds 800% Almansilla income
The situation has reached a level that the Ministry of Economy decided that municipalities to December 31, 2009 they had a debt of more than 75% of their income will not be able to borrow this year. When trying to compute qu result municipalities do not prune a list of 310 that are prohibited during this period debt, at least in theorists. The cases include that of Almensilla curious, an Andalusian village with a budget of less than 3 million debt has more than 23.5 million, ie, 801.2% of their income or Alhabia, also of Andaluc-a a, whose incomes exceed Millan also euros and its debt amounted to 3.5 million, or 300% of income. The list may be endless … none of the municipalities exceeded a simple review of Home Economics.
The crisis has highlighted the unsustainability of the model of territorial organization, which leads to an explosive growth of the binomial deficit / debt, a model that can spend and borrow without bearing the cost of raising taxes because someone a third, to pay the hole. And the problem is that in a scenario or semicierre closure of financial markets and a stalled economy, government peripherals have increasing difficulty obtaining funds to cover its debt and those with higher levels of debt could reach a situation of insolvency. The red lantern is lit.
… And a pending reform
What to do First, a radical revision of the system of finance of Autonomic and local farms. The experts consulted to ensure that budget rules require discipline and financial stability of autonomous regions and municipalities. Agree that without a policy framework of this nature there is the risk that irresponsible behavior peripherals governments destabilize the finances.
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